MoneySavingExpert on solar panels: the 2026 figures to check
MoneySavingExpert, Which? and the Energy Saving Trust are the guides most UK homeowners reach for before spending £6,000–£8,000 on a roof full of panels — and rightly so. This page does something a little different: it summarises that mainstream consensus fairly, then flags the handful of 2026 figures older editorial coverage hasn't caught up with. We are not affiliated with MoneySavingExpert, Which? or the EST and we don't reproduce their content — we just think a homeowner deserves today's numbers alongside the trusted advice.
What the mainstream guides broadly agree on
Strip away the house styles and the big consumer guides land in much the same place. It's a useful consensus, and we'd endorse most of it without hesitation:
- Solar is a long-hold money decision, not a quick win. Payback typically runs into the 10–13 year range in MoneySavingExpert's figures for lower-sun regions; the Energy Saving Trust puts panel-only payback nearer 7–11 years. Both quote honest ranges, not the "6-year payback" a pushy salesperson might.
- Use your own power. Every guide stresses that electricity you consume yourself is worth far more than electricity you export — so daytime usage, load-shifting and (optionally) a battery are what make the maths work.
- Get several MCS-certified quotes. The standard advice is to compare two or three quotes from MCS-registered installers, because MCS certification is what unlocks the Smart Export Guarantee and signals audited, competent work.
- Don't expect your bill to hit zero. Panels generate in daylight, mostly in summer, so you keep a grid connection and a standing charge. Realistic offset, not elimination.
- A battery is optional. The consensus treats storage as a bill-cutter that usually lengthens payback, not a must-have — sensible advice we agree with.
The Energy Saving Trust's reference system is about 4.5 kWp for roughly £6,100, which is close to the UK average install of 3.5–4.5 kWp. If you want our own version of this argument in full, our are solar panels worth it page walks through when the answer is genuinely "yes" and when it's "no".
The 2026 figures older solar coverage misses
Here's where a lot of otherwise-good editorial has fallen behind. Solar guides are updated less often than the tariffs and tax rules underneath them, so several widely-shared figures are now simply out of date. These are the ones worth checking before you trust any payback sum (all as at July 2026).
The best flat Octopus export rate is 12p, not the 15p that was paid until March 2026
Octopus Outgoing / Panel Power was cut from a rate that was 15p to 12p per kWh on 1 March 2026. Plenty of articles still quote 15p as "the Octopus rate", and some mix the two figures on the same page. As at July 2026, 12p is the current flat Octopus rate; Good Energy pays around 15p without switching your import supplier, and the mandatory Smart Export Guarantee floor is far lower — Octopus's flat SEG sits at just 4.1p. If a calculator you're reading assumes Octopus still pays 15p (it was cut to 12p in March 2026), its export income is roughly a quarter too high.
Octopus Flux and Intelligent Flux are closed to new customers
Older guides often recommend Octopus's Flux and Intelligent Flux tariffs as the clever way to earn more from a solar-and-battery setup. Both are now closed to new customers. If you don't already hold one, you can't sign up — so treating them as live options will skew any comparison. We simply don't present closed tariffs as choices.
The 0% VAT window closes on 31 March 2027
Residential solar — panels, batteries, supply and installation — currently carries 0% VAT under VAT Notice 708/6, but only until 31 March 2027. From 1 April 2027 it reverts to 5%. On a £6,000–£8,000 install that's roughly £300–£400 you'd pay if you buy afterwards. Several mainstream guides don't mention the VAT change at all, and a couple wrongly cite a January 2027 sunset — the correct HMRC date is 31 March 2027. This is the strongest legitimate reason to decide sooner rather than later, and it's a real, dated policy change rather than a manufactured deadline.
A unit you use is worth about double a unit you export
Every guide says "use your own power", but few put a number on how much more it's worth — and that number is the whole game. A unit you consume at home avoids about 26p of grid import (the Ofgem price cap is 26.11p/kWh for July–September 2026). A unit you export earns only about 12p. So a self-consumed unit is worth roughly double an exported one. Without a battery a typical home uses only 45–50% of what its panels make; load-shifting lifts that to 65–70%, and a battery pushes it toward 80–90%. Quantifying this is exactly why our how much solar panels save figures land at £400–£700 a year for a 4kWp system, not the headline numbers some ads imply.
Why "lock in the export rate before it drops" isn't a real reason to rush
Because a self-consumed unit is worth about twice an exported one, your savings barely depend on the export rate — they survive every SEG cut. That single fact defuses the most common piece of fake urgency in solar sales: "get in before the export rate falls again." It has already fallen (15p to 12p in March 2026) and the case for solar didn't collapse, precisely because the value sits in avoided import, not export income. There are two genuine, dated reasons the maths may be slightly better now than later — and neither is about the SEG:
- 0% VAT ends 31 March 2027, then reverts to 5% — a concrete £300–£400 on a typical install.
- Panel prices may rise. China scrapped its PV export VAT rebate on 1 April 2026, and some suppliers forecast module prices up 10–15% during 2026. That's a forecast, not a certainty — we flag it as one.
Those are worth factoring into your timing. "Beat the next export cut" is not.
The consensus advice that still holds
Correcting a few dated figures doesn't mean throwing out the mainstream advice — most of it is exactly right, and we'd repeat it:
- Get two or three MCS-certified quotes and compare like for like. Check MCS, RECC or TrustMark membership, an insurance-backed guarantee, and G98/G99 grid sign-off in writing.
- Design around your daytime usage, not around export dreams — the more you use in daylight, the shorter your payback.
- Treat every payback figure as a range, confirmed only at survey. Anyone quoting a single guaranteed number, or promising "bills to zero", is overselling.
- Know when to walk away. A north-only or heavily shaded roof, very low bills, or a house move within a few years can all sink the case — our when solar is not worth it checklist spells out the disqualifiers.
How to pressure-test any solar guide against your own home
The honest truth is that no national guide — ours included — can tell you what solar will do for your roof. What a good article gives you is a method, not a verdict. Before you trust any payback sum you read, run it past four quick checks:
- What export rate is it using? If it uses 15p for Octopus (a rate that ended in March 2026), it's stale. Realistic is ~12p (Octopus) to ~15p (Good Energy) as at July 2026.
- What import price is it assuming? The saving on power you use yourself is driven by the price cap unit rate (26.11p/kWh, July–September 2026), so a lower assumed import price understates your saving.
- Does it fold in the battery cost? Some guides quote a payback that quietly excludes the £4,000–£5,000 a battery adds. With-battery and without-battery payback are different sums.
- Is the figure a single number or a range? Ranges with stated assumptions are trustworthy; a lone hero number rarely is.
The fastest way to do all four at once is to put in your own bill, roof direction and daytime usage. Our free solar savings calculator uses 2026 figures — a ~26p import price and a ~12p Octopus export rate — and shows honest ranges rather than a single flattering total. If you want to see the working behind the timeline, the solar panel payback page breaks the cost-versus-saving maths down step by step, and our 2026 solar panel cost guide sets out what a system actually runs to.
One myth all the honest guides agree on
You'll still see the confident line that solar "adds around 14%" or "£32,000" to a home's value. The mainstream consumer guides are rightly sceptical of it, and so are we: those figures are not robustly evidenced, and we won't build your payback case on them. Owned (not leased) panels with warranties and paperwork in order can make a home more appealing and cheaper to run, which may help a sale — but treat any resale bump as a bonus, never as part of the plan. Buy solar for the bill savings across years of ownership, not as a home-value play.
Our position, plainly
We think the big consumer guides get the shape of it right, and we don't pretend to replace them. Where we try to add value is currency and specifics: date-stamped tariffs, the 0% VAT deadline converted into pounds, the battery cost folded into the maths, and a calculator that uses your numbers rather than a national average. If the mainstream advice sent you here to double-check the figures, that's exactly the right instinct — start with the calculator, then let an MCS installer's survey confirm the detail for your specific roof.